These are Bayes --------------- Music: 10,000 Maniacs Lyrics: Jennifer Hill Recorded October 7, 2000, at Glickman Studios Inc (a.k.a. Mark's apartment). Mixed and converted to MP3 later that month by Mark Glickman. Lead Vocals: Jennifer Hill Backup Vocals: Bradley Carlin, Jennifer Hill Guitars: Mark Glickman Bass Guitar: Mark Glickman Organ: Bradley Carlin Drums: Ringo, the drum machine (programmed by MG) Lyrics: These are Bayes' procedures You place your beliefs into the prior How dire! If you have no beliefs at all then go see Jeffreys You know it's true you hope your data swamps it it's true that you can generate it all too easily: MCMC These are Bayes' procedures Never before and never since I promise Will you do inference like this A FULL POSTERIOR! You'll know it's true that you have more than two moments It's true that you can average models and never choose the one that's true. These are Bayes! These are the Bayes that brighten your days when n is small these Bayes allow us to get away with almost no math at all and when you do you'll know how it was meant to be using no measure theory it's true, you'll know how it was meant to be, conferences in Spain and Crete, that'll work for me, and you too!